Maharashtra Energy Policy Simulator

The Maharashtra Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) is an open-source system dynamics model designed to assess the impacts of climate and energy policies across sectors. The model enables an integrated assessment of sector-specific and cross-sectoral climate policy packages through 2050 on key outcomes such as emissions, Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP), health and employment.

Methodology

The Maharashtra EPS model is structured into six primary sectors: industry, buildings, transportation, electricity, land use, and hydrogen. In addition, the framework includes a macroeconomic input–output (I/O) module to capture indirect and induced effects of policies on economic activity and employment. The model uses exogenous demand projections from independent modelling frameworks to establish a reference scenario. These projections are primarily derived from NITI Aayog’s IESS and are scaled to reflect Maharashtra’s specific economic structure and energy consumption patterns.

EPS allows users to explore “what-if” policy scenarios by adjusting a range of policy levers, such as electric vehicle adoption targets, renewable energy deployment, or industrial energy efficiency measures. The modelling framework accounts for interactions between policies and avoids double counting by defining certain policy measures as additive, floors, or ceilings. The simulator focuses on modelling policy actions rather than prescribing predetermined targets.

The model incorporates over 220 variables representing energy consumption, technology adoption, emissions, and economic linkages. It relies on publicly available datasets from state and national government sources, international databases, and peer-reviewed studies, scaled appropriately for Maharashtra.

Key features and outputs

The EPS generates detailed insights on emissions, energy use, economic impacts, and social outcomes under different policy scenarios. Key outputs include state-wide and sectoral GHG emissions (in CO₂e), disaggregated by gas and activity; primary energy consumption by source and end-use sector; and energy production, imports, exports, and associated financial flows. The model also evaluates the contribution of individual policies to total emissions reduction, along with policy costs expressed as the average cost per ton of CO₂e abated and the overall cost or savings of policy scenarios. In addition, the EPS assesses changes in GSDP, employment, and net cash flows across government, industry, and consumers relative to a baseline scenario. The simulator also estimates air pollutant emissions (NOx, SOx, PM10, and PM2.5) and associated health benefits, including avoided premature mortality, hospital admissions, and work-loss days resulting from improved air quality.

By analysing the impacts of multiple policy measures simultaneously, the Maharashtra EPS helps identify pathways for reducing emissions while supporting economic growth and public health outcomes. The model evaluates how policies influence emissions, economic activity, and employment over the short, medium, and long term, while also estimating the abatement potential and economic implications of emerging technologies such as green hydrogen and battery storage. Through the assessment of complementary measures such as clean energy targets, fiscal incentives, and regulatory standards, the EPS provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the trade-offs and co-benefits associated with Maharashtra’s transition towards a low-carbon economy.